This Wednesday, the Círculo Ecuestre received Jorge Dezcallar, a Spanish diplomat, former director general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and former director of the CNI, and José María de Areilza Carvajal, professor at ESADE and general secretary of the Aspen Institute Spain.
After the welcome by Antonio Delgado, president of the Círculo Ecuestre, the speakers took part in the colloquium Geopolitical in times of great rivalries, promoted in collaboration with the Aspen Institute Spain.
The president of the institution, who acted as moderator of the act, wanted to start the conversation by asking the experts about the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Dezcallar began his speech by alluding to the need to go back in time and see that "the conflict is the consequence of the end of a geopolitical era in which mechanisms were established that have entered into crisis." “Russia has not agreed with the European security structure and the distribution of powers. He has seen that his requests have not been listened to and he has taken everything," added the expert, who predicted that "as long as both sides think they are going to win, the war will continue over time and an agreement will not be reached."
The former director general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and former director of the National Intelligence Center (CNI), made a brief analysis of the consequences that the continuation of the conflict could have: "It may be that people get tired of supporting Ukraine , which will give strength to a republican government in the USA. It will also increase the chances of the war spreading." Dezcallar added that "the risk of an error is increased," alluding to nuclear weapons.
In his turn to speak, the general secretary of the Aspen Institute Spain, José María de Areilza, opined that "Putin has resurrected the Atlantic Alliance." In addition, he evaluated what the damage could be if the conflict continues over time: “if the war becomes chronic, Russia can win it. It is possible that, at the end of the year, Biden tries to bring both sides to the table before the 2024 presidential campaign." Areilza added that "the United States expects the Europeans to work with them in the Pacific in the face of the rivalry with China."
Following the line of the world powers, Dezcallar explained to the attendees that “artificial intelligence is going to inject 15 trillion into the world GDP. Half is going to remain with China and the differences between countries will increase”. Likewise, he opined that “China has many problems and is not prepared for a confrontation with the United States”: “China has lifted 800 million Chinese out of poverty, but it is not an absolute giant; she has feet of clay, and the United States has strong foundations.”
For his part, Areilza explained that "the United States is no longer a country that thinks about the management of global affairs through multilateralism." “Biden has done a very good job of forging a 41-country coalition to stop Russia. There are some chances that Trump will return to the White House," added the expert, alleging that "the American country is at a time when it has little interest in Europe and is focused on its domestic affairs, artificial intelligence and competition with China".
"China is a country with more internal problems, but that can make it look for more external enemies," predicted the professor. "Xi Jinping wants to make history and put the country back where it belongs," he said.
Dezcallar for his part accused Trump of "having done horrible damage to the United States to the point that Europe has had to make a policy my way out of mistrust." "Either we are capable of developing a common defense policy or we will simply disappear and our standard of living will go with us," he declared.
In this context, his speaker partner assured that "Europe has not done its homework in terms of security and defense" and Dezcallar added that "we have placed our security in the hands of the United States, our energy dependence in the hands of Russia and our technology in Chinese hands." "You have to agree to write the rules of the future", expressed both experts.
The former director of the CNI recalled that "we are at a time when four revolutions coincide: technological, digital, genetic and demographic" and that this paradigm "produces great inequalities, poses brutal reserve problems and puts the world in a very disturbing process of change.” Along these lines, Dezcallar provided relevant macroeconomic data: "50% of all world wealth produced since the pandemic has been left by 1% of the world's population." "If you have 2,200 euros in your pocket, you belong to the richest 50% of society, and that is not right," he concluded.
The last block of the dialogue held in the Círculo Ecuestre was framed in the relationship of Spain with the Maghreb.
The former director general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reviewed Spain's relationship with the African country in recent years, mentioning Spain's withdrawal "for not having a colonial conflict when Franco was dying." The geopolitical expert told the attendees that "our country was under the umbrella of the UN until Pedro Sánchez decided one day, without asking anyone, that he was going to support the Moroccan position of autonomy over the Sahara." Faced with this situation, Dezcallar opined that the current President of the Government "has placed Spain in the middle of Morocco and Algeria" and that this decision "has meant that there is no export from Spain to Algeria", among other drawbacks.
The speakers concluded the conference agreeing that "the interests of the state have to be permanent and do not have to depend on the preferences of each government."