The Círculo Ecuestre received Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of the Bank of Spain, member of the Governing Council and the General Council of the European Central Bank, at its facilities on April 3, within the framework of the cycle of talks Crossed Agendas: Madrid - Barcelona.
After the welcome from the president of the Círculo Ecuestre, Enrique Lacalle, the Governor held a dialogue with La Vanguardia journalist Manel Pérez. The conversation began with De Cos celebrating the drop in inflation that has kept Europe on edge in the last three years. Along these lines, the also member of the Governing Council and the General Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) opened the door to a “lower interest rates for the month of June”. This, according to the governor, “is the central scenario” although “it is not an unconditional projection” since the European monetary authority must “analyze the data with restraint” as it is updated.
The Governor of the Bank of Spain pointed out in the framework of the colloquium that "inflation has been lower than expected in recent months". And he predicted that in 2024 "the average CPI of the Eurozone will be 2.3%", reducing "up to 2% and 1.9%", in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Likewise, the economist declared to the listeners of the Círculo Ecuestre that these forecasts, together with the "significant drop in underlying inflation" and the "effective transmission” from monetary policy to credit and financing conditions, could produce a more flexible interest rate.
De Cos assessed that, if macroeconomic forecasts are met, eurozone inflation will reach the European Central Bank's objective of 2% in the medium term. On the other hand, the governor of the Bank of Spain insisted on the need for fiscal consolidation in Spain "absolutely necessary".
During the dialogue held at the business institution, de Cos spoke about unemployment, pensions and productivity, among other aspects of general interest. Regarding the possible reduction in rates, the economist said that "a more expansive monetary policy would boost investment and economic growth". In that sense, he predicted that the European economy will recover and continue growing at a rate close to 2%.
Regarding the unemployment situation in Spain, de Cos regretted that it continues to exceed 12% and that this is summarized in a “position of weakness for the Spanish economy”. For this reason, he demanded that politics take into account and ensure that business relationships are maintained and cared for. In line with what was said, the Governor stated that “economic growth has been greater than expected” in 2023, but that “private investment has not recovered the levels prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.”
Finally, the highest representative of the Bank of Spain asked the Government to focus on increasing the supply of housing to solve the accessibility problem that exists. “The housing problem is in supply. We must focus on generating the conditions for supply to be mobilized and do it quickly, because the gap between supply and demand is large and it will take years to solve it”, he stated.